Robust Market Recovery
Macau’s gaming resurgence shows balanced momentum as both VIP and mass markets recorded 10-15% annual growth in early August. VIP gaming remains at 30% pre-pandemic capacity, while mass market revenue exceeds 2019 levels by 25%, indicating shifting industry dynamics. JP Morgan analysts highlight the expansion of both sectors as essential for recovery and project double-digit GGR gains through Q1 2026.
The bank predicts these trends will likely draw long-term investors, noting current valuations at circa 9x enterprise value/EBITDA leave room for expansion. It also expects analyst forecast upgrades despite lagging stock performance on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as earnings visibility improves, even without major holiday catalysts.
Revised GGR Projections
JP Morgan’s bullish outlook on Macau’s gaming sector follows a similar move by Citigroup, which upgraded its August GGR forecast to MOP21.75 billion (US$2.70 billion), representing a 10% YoY increase. The adjustments came after Macau brought in MOP12.1 billion (US$1.5 billion) in revenue in the month’s first 17 days. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted the figure represents nearly 90% of August 2019’s performance.
Despite disruptions by Typhoon Podul during the month, mass-market GGR grew 1-2% month-on-month, offsetting a 2-4% dip in VIP turnover. “VIP hold rate appears to be higher than that of the first ten days of August,” the analysts reported, indicating higher premium player retention.
Revenue Highs Drive Recovery
Macau’s gaming tax remained stable at MOP8.11 billion (US$1.01 billion) in July, nearly matching June’s MOP8.16 billion, as June’s MOP21.1 billion (19% YoY increase) revenue fueled fiscal coffers. Year-to-date gaming taxes reached MOP53.4 billion (US$6.64 billion), a 3.4% annual rise.
With 60.3% of the FY25 MOP93.1 billion tax target already achieved, gaming reinforces its role in sustaining Macau’s post-pandemic recovery, even as diversification efforts continue.
