Jefferies, CLSA Boost Macau Gaming Forecasts After Summer Surge

Investment banks Jefferies and CLSA have issued bold revisions to Macau’s 2025 gaming revenue outlook. The changes are fueled by a resurgence of the Chinese yuan and stronger-than-expected summer performance. Jefferies now predicts gross gaming revenue (GGR) to reach MOP248 billion (US$31.8 billion), a 4.6% increase from its prior estimate. This is the most optimistic forecast among major analysts.

CLSA followed suit, backing the revisions with the yuan’s currency appreciation that amplifies mainland Chinese visitors’ spending power. Both updates signal growing confidence in Macau’s growth trajectory, even as government benchmarks remain the same.

Jefferies Pulls Ahead

Jefferies’ revised forecast anticipates 9.5% annual growth for Macau’s gaming sector in 2025, driven by a 13.8% and 15.3% surge in Q3 and Q4, respectively. Analysts highlight diverging trajectories among operators. Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are expected to gain market share through aggressive reinvestment, while MGM and Wynn Macau will likely hold steady. SJM Holdings, however, faces continued declines amid satellite casino closures and sluggish performance at Grand Lisboa Palace.

The upgrades are also inspired by high-profile events like the NBA China Games and the Macau Grand Prix, alongside consumer spending boosted by stock and cryptocurrency gains. “These drivers will continue to fuel GGR growth,” analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei noted.

Meanwhile, luxury renovations at Galaxy’s Capella and The Londoner aim to lure high rollers, while content-driven footfall converts casual visitors into gamblers. Operators are further sweetening deals with lavish player incentives, capitalizing on tourists’ rising disposable wealth.

Currency Gains Fuel Momentum

CLSA analysts highlight a 0.4% yuan appreciation since July has increased mainland Chinese gamblers’ purchasing power. They point to Macau’s August GGR hitting MOP 22.16 billion, the strongest monthly performance since January 2020, before the COVID pandemic. Similar historical patterns reinforce the trend: a 4% yuan rise in 2017 correlated with a 24% daily GGR surge, while 2024’s depreciation saw a decline.

A CLSA 2025 survey of 800 gamblers found that 47% would increase their budgets with yuan strength, highlighting currency-driven spending shifts. Current momentum appears sustainable, with 33 of 38 casino resorts fully booked ahead of October’s Golden Week. “This bodes well for GGR growth,” the brokerage noted, adding that improved outbound travel conditions will improve tourism flow.

Analysts Outpace Government

Jefferies and CLSA reaffirm Macau’s recovery trajectory, explaining that the SAR is likely to surpass official targets if the current catalysts persist. Their MOP248 billion GGR forecast for 2025 now stands 8.8% above the government’s MOP228 billion projection. It was revised in June due to weakness earlier in the year.