Macau Casino Revenue Hits MOP5.5B Record in October, Boosted by Golden Week

Macau’s gaming sector opened October with robust momentum, generating MOP5.5 billion (US$686.1 million) in gross gaming revenue during Golden Week’s first five days, averaging MOP1.1 billion (US$138 million). Analysts at JP Morgan confirm this is the strongest holiday period performance since 2020.

The annual tourism surge, fueled by mainland China’s National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, brought nearly 790,000 visitors, averaging 158,000 per day. However, Typhoon Matmo disrupted travel on October 5, slashing arrivals by 25% compared to the preceding days.

Typhoon Interrupts Surge

Macau’s gaming momentum faced challenges as Typhoon Matmo cut visitor arrivals on October 5 by 41% to 113,051 from 191,176 on October 4. Despite the weather setback, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Lindsey Qian, and Selina Li emphasized that the holiday’s extended eight-day duration, versus the seven-day break in 2024, will serve as a buffer, and delayed trips will likely fuel demand later.

While year-on-year revenue growth remained modest at 3%, the brokerage forecasts daily GGR will rise to MOP750 million (US$94 million) in the month’s second week, reflecting mid-to-high percentage gains over 2024 levels. Casino operators now look to capture rescheduled visits as storm conditions ease.

Sustained Growth

JP Morgan analysts placed October’s full-month GGR forecast at MOP23 billion (US$2.87 billion), projecting an 11-13% YoY surge that would mark Macau’s highest monthly performance in six years. The outlook is driven by resilient demand from premium mass players and the extended holiday calendar. It underscores the sector’s recovery from Typhoon Ragasa, which hit in late September.

Analysts highlight a 6% rise in premium mass betting averages and the popularity of new baccarat side bets as key propelling factors, alongside economic drivers such as a stronger yuan and rising mainland industrial profits. Despite extreme weather conditions, the SAR’s gaming industry appears to sustain its rebound, with consumer resilience offsetting earlier seasonal headwinds.

Dip in Stocks

Macau’s gaming stocks faced turbulence as Typhoon Matmo’s disruptions triggered declines, with Melco International plunging 6.5% and MGM China down 4.7%. Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and SJM Holdings each slid about 2%.

Despite the setbacks, industry analysts emphasize enduring optimism, projecting double-digit GGR through early 2026. Sustained premium mass demand and robust economic performance in mainland China are fueling confidence in the sector’s resilience.