Macau GGR Falls 1.2% in September as Earnings Risks Rise

Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell 1.2% year-on-year in September to MOP18.06 billion (US$2.23 billion). The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) released the figure on Oct. 1. September was the weakest month of 2026 so far and the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year declines.

Brokerage CLSA now says the risk of downward revisions to Macau earnings forecasts has escalated. The data arrives as the National Day Golden Week holiday begins, one of the busiest trading periods of the year for the city's casinos. Analysts have been trimming full-year forecasts amid broader market softness.

September GGR Misses Estimate as World Cup Drag Lingers

September GGR was down 17.5% from August's MOP21.89 billion (US$2.71 billion). It also missed CLSA's mid-September estimate of MOP18.6 billion, which implied 1.7% growth. That forecast relied on an easy comparison, since typhoon-related casino closures weighed on September 2025 results.

Despite the low base, revenue still declined. Citigroup came closer, having cut its September forecast to MOP18 billion after a weak survey of premium-mass tables. Through the first nine months of 2026, GGR grew 3.2% to MOP187.12 billion. Third-quarter GGR totaled MOP60.21 billion, down 1.3% from the second quarter.

Year-on-year, GGR rose 6.7% in May before falling 12.1% in June as the World Cup drew gamblers to sports betting. Industry reports suggest the city has yet to fully recover from that disruption.

The September result came despite Seaport Research Partners' recent note of gains in visitation and agent activity.

CLSA Flags Earnings Downgrade Risk as Costs Squeeze Margins

In a Sept. 29 note, CLSA said the risk of a downward revision to consensus Macau earnings estimates had escalated. The brokerage had already trimmed its 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts in mid-September. Analyst Jeffrey Kiang wrote that investors "do not see imminent signs that might reaccelerate gaming revenue growth."

CLSA expects fourth-quarter GGR to fall 0.9% year-on-year to MOP65.5 billion. Kiang also cited China's new tax rules on offshore trusts as a headwind. Rising costs add to the concern. Second-quarter operating expenses rose 2% year-on-year while GGR slipped 0.1%. Sector EBITDA fell 10.7% to US$1.81 billion, and the EBITDA-to-GGR ratio slid to 24.2% from 26.8%. CLSA warned that such cost pressure "does not dissipate easily."

Macau Targets 150,000 Daily Visitors for Golden Week Test

Golden Week runs from Oct. 1 to 7. The Macao Government Tourism Office is targeting an average of 150,000 visitor arrivals per day. Hotel occupancy should exceed 90%, while police forecast 5.2 million to 5.4 million border crossings over the holiday. Crossings are likely to peak on Oct. 3 and 4, potentially topping 800,000 a day.

During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, Macau recorded about 415,000 visitors, up 19.5% from last year's holiday.

For the full year, CLSA forecasts GGR of MOP253.2 billion, implying 2.3% growth. The DICJ will publish October figures in early November. Those numbers will offer the first full read on how Golden Week performed.