IMF Sees Macau VIP Gaming Staying a Small Share of GGR

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects VIP gaming to remain a relatively small share of Macau's casino revenue over the medium term.

In its 2026 Article IV report on Macau, published September 29, the Fund said mass-market play accounted for about 73 percent of gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025. Overall GGR remains about 15 percent below its pre-pandemic peak.

The Fund linked the shift to tighter junket rules, stricter anti-money laundering (AML) enforcement, and changes in visitor spending.

Why the IMF Expects Macau's VIP Segment to Stay Small

Although the VIP segment has shown some signs of recovery, the IMF expects its share of GGR to remain "relatively low." The report tied this outlook to casinos adapting to the post-pandemic operating environment. Tighter rules for junket operators, introduced under Macau's 2022 gaming-law reforms, also weigh on the segment.

Specifically, the Fund cited stricter licensing requirements, limits on credit provision, and stronger AML enforcement.

Data from Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) show how much the revenue mix has changed. VIP baccarat generated MOP15.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026, about 26 percent of total GGR. That compares with 46.2 percent in 2019.

Mass-Market Gaming Drives Recovery, but GGR Stays Below 2019

The IMF said mass-market gaming has driven the recovery. DICJ data show GGR reached MOP247.4 billion in 2025, up 9.1 percent from 2024. The total equaled 84.6 percent of the 2019 level. Growth continued in the first half of 2026, which the IMF also attributed to the mass segment.

In the second quarter of 2026, mass baccarat accounted for more than 57 percent of GGR, DICJ figures show. VIP baccarat revenue fell 2.6 percent year over year in the same period. Total GGR for the quarter was about MOP61 billion, roughly unchanged from a year earlier.

Real GDP, however, remains about 10 percent below its pre-pandemic level, the IMF said. It attributed the gap partly to weaker demand from high-end customers.

IMF Projects Slower Macau Growth, Urges Diversification

The IMF projects real GDP growth will moderate to 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, down from 4.7 percent in 2025.

According to the report, the economy still relies heavily on gaming and tourism. Domestic demand remains weak, with subdued investment and a sluggish property market. Among the risks the IMF flagged is greater competition in the gaming industry.

The report also cited the government's target of raising non-gaming activities to 60 percent of GDP by 2030. Reaching that goal will require more investment in skills, talent, and infrastructure, the IMF said. Support measures, including the planned MOP20 billion Government Guidance Fund, should be "targeted, time-bound, and performance-based," the Fund said.