Macau Q3 GGR Forecast Cut as World Cup Weighs on Revenue

Macau's gaming market is facing a mixed near-term outlook. Macquarie has lowered its third-quarter GGR forecast, citing the lingering effects of the World Cup on casino revenue. The tournament, running through July 19, has drawn some premium players away from the tables. June already marked the first year-over-year GGR decline since January 2025. Analysts also trimmed price targets on Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts as a result. Despite the short-term drag, Moody's Ratings expects Macau to outperform other Asian gaming markets over the next 12 to 18 months, citing strong domestic demand.

Macquarie Cuts Macau Q3 and Full-Year GGR Forecasts

Macquarie analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee, and Sam Ghafir cut their third-quarter 2026 GGR growth forecast from 6% to 2% year-over-year. Full-year 2026 GGR is now expected to grow 5.4%, down from a prior estimate of 7.7%. The revision reflects weaker June results and the ongoing World Cup, which historically diverts premium player spending toward sports betting.

Macau posted 14.3% GGR growth in the first quarter of 2026, but growth slowed to 6.8% by June 30. June revenue fell 12.1% year-over-year to MOP18.5 billion, about US$2.29 billion, marking a sharp reversal after months of recovery. The analysts said Macau demand still depends on consumer sentiment, premium player liquidity, and regional economic conditions.

They added that the structural recovery story remains intact, though June's results highlight the importance of the premium segment.

Sands, Wynn Price Targets Trimmed on Weak GGR

Macquarie's Beynon also trimmed price targets on Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts following the weak June GGR reading. Visitation to Macau remained strong, surpassing 20 million visits for the year, 18 days earlier than in 2025. Even so, that traffic failed to translate into higher gaming revenue.

Beynon lowered his Las Vegas Sands price target to $66 from $68, maintaining an "outperform" rating and citing insulation from broader market risks. He also pointed to Marina Bay Sands in Singapore as a key growth driver. Wynn's price target was cut slightly to $143 from $145, also with an "outperform" rating. Beynon cited pricing power in Las Vegas and the upcoming Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE as tailwinds.

Moody's: Macau to Outperform Weaker Southeast Asia

Despite near-term softness, Moody's Ratings expects Macau to lead gaming growth across Asia over the next 12 to 18 months. The agency pointed to strong domestic demand and resilience against rising travel costs. Macau's GGR rose 6.8% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, compared with 4.4% growth over the same period in 2025. Moody's said Macau benefits from its proximity to mainland China and reliance on short-haul travel.

Southeast Asian markets, by contrast, face greater exposure to airfare increases and geopolitical uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions. Singapore and Malaysia could see softer tourism spending, while Cambodia faces added risk from tensions with Thailand. Moody's expects only low single-digit GGR growth across Southeast Asia between 2026 and 2027.