Macau Mass Baccarat Revenue Falls to 2026 Low in Q3

Macau's mass baccarat revenue fell to its lowest quarterly level of 2026 between July and September. The segment generated MOP33.6 billion ($4.03 billion) in the third quarter, down 4.5% from the second quarter. Total casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) slipped 1.3% to MOP60.2 billion ($7.23 billion) over the same period. The figures come from Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ).

VIP baccarat revenue moved the other way, rising 6.3% from the second quarter. Overall casino GGR has now fallen for two consecutive quarters. The results arrive as Macau's government holds firm on its full-year GGR forecast of MOP236 billion ($28.32 billion).

Mass Baccarat Revenue Drops Again as Capacity Holds Steady

DICJ data shows mass baccarat revenue has fallen steadily through 2026. The segment earned MOP36.6 billion ($4.39 billion) in the first quarter. Revenue then slipped to MOP35.2 billion ($4.23 billion) in the second quarter. Third-quarter revenue fell further to MOP33.6 billion ($4.03 billion).

The regulator's baccarat category includes both mass and premium mass play. It remains Macau's largest revenue source by a wide margin. Mass baccarat accounted for about 56% of total casino GGR in the third quarter. Slot machines brought in MOP4.1 billion ($491 million), down slightly from the second quarter. Macau had 6,000 gaming tables and 12,000 slot machines in operation in each quarter. That means the revenue drop came without any cut in gaming capacity.

VIP Baccarat and Roulette Gain While Blackjack Slips

VIP baccarat revenue rose to MOP16.9 billion ($2.03 billion) in the third quarter. That was up from MOP15.9 billion ($1.91 billion) in the second quarter. However, the segment remains below its first-quarter level. VIP baccarat generated MOP19.6 billion ($2.35 billion) between January and March.

The DICJ classifies VIP revenue by how certain gaming tables are designated. Casino operators use different methods in their own financial reports. As a result, the regulator's VIP figures cannot be compared directly with company earnings.

Among smaller games, roulette revenue rose about 27% from the second quarter. It climbed to MOP425 million ($51 million) in the third quarter. Blackjack revenue fell to MOP668 million ($80 million) over the same period.

Can Macau Still Hit Its MOP236 Billion ($28.32 Billion) GGR Forecast?

Macau's casinos generated MOP187.1 billion ($22.45 billion) in the first nine months of 2026, up 3.2% from the same period of 2025. The government's 2026 budget forecasts full-year GGR of MOP236 billion ($28.32 billion). Casinos need about MOP48.9 billion ($5.87 billion) in the fourth quarter to reach that target.

That works out to roughly MOP16.3 billion ($1.96 billion) per month, well below the third-quarter average of about MOP20.1 billion ($2.41 billion).

Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said there are no current plans to lower the forecast. He added that October's results would be crucial. The government lowered its 2025 forecast to MOP228 billion ($27.37 billion) in June 2025. The DICJ is due to release official October figures in early November.