Macau Holds 2026 Gaming Revenue Forecast Despite Slump

Macau's government will not lower its 2026 gaming revenue forecast despite four straight months of year-on-year declines. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai confirmed the stance on Saturday, October 10, while speaking to local media at the Government Headquarters Open Day.

The forecast stands at MOP236 billion (US$29.2 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR). Sam described October's result as crucial and said he hoped full-year revenue would meet expectations.

His comments follow September's GGR of MOP18.06 billion (US$2.23 billion), the lowest monthly total of 2026. Casino operators now face a closely watched fourth quarter.

Macau GGR Slides After a Strong Start to 2026

Macau opened 2026 with five consecutive months of year-on-year growth. Combined GGR for January through May rose 10.9% to MOP108.4 billion (US$13.41 billion).

The trend reversed in June, when revenue fell year-on-year to MOP18.52 billion (US$2.29 billion). July GGR dropped 8.4% as the FIFA World Cup diverted spending. Revenue fell 1.2% year-on-year in both August and September. September's MOP18.06 billion (US$2.23 billion) total set a new low for the year and came in 17.5% below August.

The decline came despite stronger holiday visitation. Mid-Autumn Festival arrivals rose 19.5% year-on-year to about 415,000 over the three-day holiday. Gaming spending did not keep pace with the crowds. September marked the city's fourth straight year-on-year decline.

Is the MOP236 Billion (US$29.2 billion) Target Still Within Reach?

Sam noted that GGR had grown steadily from 2023 to 2025. He added that revenue "began to pull back in the second quarter of this year." Even so, the official target remains within reach. GGR for January through September reached MOP187.12 billion (US$23.15 billion), up 3.2% year-on-year.

Macau needs about MOP48.9 billion (US$6.05 billion) in the final quarter to hit the MOP236 billion (US$29.2 billion) target. That works out to roughly MOP16.3 billion (US$2.02 billion) per month. Every month of 2026 has cleared that level so far.

Matching 2025's full-year GGR of MOP247.4 billion (US$30.61 billion) is a harder test. To do so, Macau would need about MOP20.1 billion (US$2.49 billion) per month through December. September's result fell about MOP2 billion (US$247 million) short of that pace.

October Faces a Tough Test With No Forecast Cut Planned

October carries extra weight because of China's National Day Golden Week holiday. The holiday ran from October 1 to 7, a period that typically lifts casino demand. Macau recorded 1.14 million visitor arrivals across the seven days. However, the city faces a steep year-on-year comparison. October 2025 GGR reached about MOP24.1 billion (US$2.98 billion), the highest monthly total since the pandemic.

The government has revised its forecast before. In June 2025, it cut that year's forecast from MOP240 billion (US$29.7 billion) to MOP228 billion (US$28.21 billion). Actual 2025 revenue ultimately beat both figures.

Sam has said no similar cut is planned for 2026. Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau is expected to publish October figures in early November.