Macau Q3 GDP Projected to Fall 2% as Gaming Slump Deepens

Macau's casino slump is now spreading to its wider economy. The Macau Economic Association (MEA) estimates that third-quarter GDP fell about 2% year over year. That would put third-quarter output at MOP102.9 billion ($12.7 billion).

The estimate comes as brokers grow more cautious about the fourth quarter. Analysts expect October gaming revenue to decline despite busy Golden Week crowds. Macau's gaming regulator will publish the October figures in November. The data will show whether Macau remains on track for its full-year revenue target.

Casino Revenue Drop Drags Q3 GDP Lower as Other Sectors Hold Up

MEA estimates put the contraction between 0.8% and 2.7%. Growth had already slowed sharply this year, with GDP rising 7.2% in the first quarter but only 0.3% in the second. "The gaming performance fell slightly short of expectations," the MEA said.

Official figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) support that view. Third-quarter casino revenue fell 3.8% to MOP60.22 billion ($7.45 billion), and monthly revenue has now declined year over year for four straight months.

Other sectors held up better. The MEA said hotel occupancy and guest numbers stayed high. It added that consumer spending by residents and visitors remained strong.

Brokers Expect October Gaming Revenue to Fall 5% to 7%

Brokers expect the weakness to continue. Seaport Research Partners forecast a 5% drop in October gaming revenue. It cited China's weaker economy and tax enforcement on offshore trusts. Both factors could weigh on spending by wealthy players.

Jefferies forecast a steeper 7% fall for the month. October also faces a tough year-over-year comparison. Casinos won MOP24.08 billion ($2.98 billion) in October 2025. Government data show visitor arrivals rose during this year's Golden Week holiday.

In an Oct. 20 note, Seaport said headwinds should ease slightly in the coming months. It expects comparisons to become easier in the second half of 2027. Analysts at Truist Securities also flagged weak demand from base mass players, Macau's lower-spending mass-market customers.

Can Macau Still Hit Its 2026 Gaming Revenue Target?

The government expects MOP236 billion ($29.2 billion) in casino revenue for 2026. Casinos generated MOP187.1 billion ($23.2 billion) through September, leaving about MOP48.9 billion ($6.1 billion) to go in the final three months.

Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said the government has no plans to change the forecast. He called October a crucial month for hitting the target. "Nobody knows, so we are watching closely," Sam said. Hitting the target requires about MOP16.3 billion ($2.0 billion) a month. That is below September's MOP18.06 billion ($2.24 billion), the lowest monthly total of 2026 so far.

J.P. Morgan expects fourth-quarter revenue to fall 6% year over year. It still forecasts full-year revenue of MOP249.1 billion ($30.8 billion), above the government's target.

Jefferies is more optimistic, forecasting MOP252 billion ($31.2 billion) for the year.