Macau Gaming Industry on Track for Significant GGR Increase in 2025

Macau’s gaming industry displayed a remarkable recovery in 2024, and the trajectory is expected to continue in 2025. Analysts forecast that the industry will likely experience steady growth throughout the year, though at a slower pace than in 2024.

Analysts from the Fitch Group division CreditSights predict that Macau’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) in 2025 will grow by a modest 4% year-on-year. The US$30.5 billion projection is lower than the expectations for Seaport, which is predicted to have 8% annual growth.

Driving Factors for Growth

The expectation for 2025 is a similar recovery trend to 2024, which generated MOP227 billion US$28.3 billion, representing 78% of 2019’s pre-pandemic numbers. These levels exceeded earlier expectations, and 2025 is poised to recover to 84% of pre-COVID GGR.

The anticipated growth in 2025 will likely be contributed to by a return to pre-pandemic ease of travel. The Macau Individual Visit Scheme added more Chinese cities and approved multi-entry visas for residents in neighboring cities in 2024.

Visitation will likely improve with upgrades in major casinos like MGM Macau, Sands China, Melco Resorts, and Wynn Macau. Wynn is making significant renovations to include a destination food hall, while Melco is working on its iconic House of Dancing Water.

A More Optimistic View

Macau’s gaming market 2025 outlook got more favorable predictions from Seaport Research Partners. Seaport’s projections expect a 7% GGR growth. The research team considers that the Chinese economy will likely improve, and consumer sentiments will strengthen.

Seaport also predicts a positive EDIBTA outcome of approximately 9% across the sector. The researchers also provided a longer-term forecast from 2025 to 2027. It suggests a steady growth rate in GGR and a larger market share falling into the hands of conglomerates like Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China.

Persisting Issues

The overall expectations for the industry are positive, but small operators with vulnerable market positions continue to struggle. SJM Holdings is one such company that has received a “Sell” rating from Seaport for its over-reliance on the Peninsula and inability to upgrade the Grand Lisboa Palace.

SJM also struggles with high debt levels and the inability to restart its dividend. Seaport’s spokesperson, Vitaly Umansky, stated, “We expect SJM to show quarter-over-quarter share loss in Q4 (estimated at -80bps). We expect SJM to struggle to gain share in 2025 and beyond, likely losing share due to an inferior product offering, poor location on Cotai, and potential loss of satellite casinos.”