Tax Targets Carry Responsibility
The Dutch Ministry of Finance’s ambitious plan to secure €200 million annually in gambling taxes through 2028 is at risk of collapse. KSA is poised to confirm the shortfall in a tax impact report, and a spokesperson explained that the revised projections align with industry warnings about shrinking market viability under tightening regulations.
Trade association Brancheorganisatie VAN Kansspelen condemned the 2025 tax hike by 3.7% as “doubly reckless”, explaining it undermines both fiscal goals and responsible gambling objectives. VNLOK attributes the downturn to players migrating to unregulated platforms to escape restrictive policies, undermining the sector’s ability to recover lost revenue.
Shrinking Market
The Netherlands’ regulated gambling sector is facing high player migration to offshore platforms, contributing to the drop in GGR. Industry analysts attribute the trend to stringent measures passed in October 2024, including a €700 (US$807) monthly deposit limit for most players and tighter €300 (US$346) limits for players under 25 years. Also, there are advertising bans on untargeted ads and sponsorship deals.
VNLOK warns that the combined effect of restrictive policies and increased 34.2% tax rates has driven high-value players to unlicensed operators. This is backed by KSA data showing that regulated market dominance fell from 58% to 50% within a year. While registered accounts grew to 1.19 million, authorities confirm the dwindling high rollers undermine revenue recovery efforts.
More Tax Hikes Down the Road
Dutch authorities plan to raise gambling taxes even further to 37.8% of GGR by January 2026, despite warnings predicting the shutdown of many operators. The hike will apply across casinos, lotteries, and online platforms. While officials project €202 million in new revenue with the tax increases, industry analysts caution that the market loss mirrors trends in Sweden and France, where similar rises have strained markets.
