Macau’s Flat Gaming Tax Income Through First Four Months Strains Public Revenue

Macau’s public revenue suffered in the first four months of 2025, falling 4.95% year-on-year to MOP34 billion (US$4.25 billion), according to Financial Services Bureau data. The decline stemmed primarily from a near-total collapse in financial income. Returns on investments, dividends, and interests managed by the Monetary Authority of Macau plummeted from MOP1 billion (US$125 million) in early 2024 to just MOP6,000 (US$750) this year.

Meanwhile, gaming tax revenue remained nearly unchanged at MOP29.8 billion (US$3.7 billion). This accounted for 87.7% of total income and reinforced the sector’s crucial role in sustaining the Special Administrative Region’s (SAR) economy despite broader fiscal pressures.

Gaming Tax Stability Masks Fiscal Shortfalls

Despite a 0.8% rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP76.51 billion (US$9.54 billion), Macau’s gaming tax revenue remained nearly flat from January to April 2025. Reporting lags caused the discrepancy since taxes collected typically reflect the prior month’s GGR.

For instance, April’s MOP7.64 billion (US$944 million) tax intake, down 3.9% from March, corresponded to Match’s MOP19.66 billion (US$2.45 billion) GGR, which edged up 0.8% annually but dipped slightly in February. Year-to-date gaming taxes accounted for 32% of the government’s 2025 target (MOP93.12 billion/US$29.84 billion), while GGR hit 31.9% of its annual target.

Outlined Fiscal Targets

The Macau government remains cautiously on track to meet its 2025 gaming tax projection of MOP93.12 billion (US$11.6 billion). So far, it has collected 3% of the goal by April’s end. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai warned of potential budgetary risks during his April policy address, citing stagnant gaming tax growth and collapsing financial income as factors necessitating fiscal reassessment.

Despite these concerns, the SAR maintained a MOP10.3 billion (US$1.29 billion) surplus through April—down 18.5% year-on-year but exceeding its MOP6.83 billion (US$854 million) forecast. This follows 2024’s MOP15.8 billion (US$1.98 billion) surplus, the first post-pandemic year Macau achieved a positive balance without tapping into reserves.

Spending Rises Despite Strains

Public expenditure in Macau grew 2.6% year-on-year to MOP24 billion (US$3 billion) in the first four months of 2025, compounding fiscal pressures. The SAR’s budget model remains anchored to casino taxes, which impose a 40% levy under concession terms renewed in 2023. With post-pandemic spending gradually rising against constrained revenue streams, policymakers face mounting challenges in balancing alternative income streams to offset gaming-dependent income.