Macau Government Lowers Gaming Revenue Forecast to MOP228B Amid Caution

In a significant fiscal adjustment, Macau’s government has lowered its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) projection by 5%. It has reduced the annual estimate to MOP228 billion (US$28.2 billion) from the originally budgeted MOP240 billion (US$29.7 billion).

The revision follows a comprehensive evaluation of regional economic conditions and  the gaming sector’s underperformance compared to initial targets. The industry generated a GGR of MOP97.7 billion (US$12.1 billion) from January to May, translating to a monthly average of MOP19.5 billion (US$2.42 billion). This figure falls short of the MOP20 billion (US$2.47 billion) benchmark predicted for each month. Accordingly, authorities have revised their fiscal plans to align with lower expectations for the remainder of FY25.

Revised Budget to Match Underperformance

Administration and Justice Secretary Andre Cheong Weng Chon confirmed at a press briefing that the updated GGR projection reflects the current monthly performance trend. Therefore, the government has reduced its projected 2025 fiscal revenue to MOP116.6 billion (US$14.4 billion) from the initial MOP121.1 billion (US$15.0 billion) estimate.

The government has also made expenditure adjustments, showing a planned increase of MOP2.85 billion (US$353 million), bringing the total 2025 spending to MOP116.2 billion (US$14.4 billion). These changes prioritize enhanced subsidies for disadvantaged communities and funding the University of Macau’s Hengqin campus development, an MOP7 billion (US$870 million) project that will run until 2030. Under the revised budget, MOP1.75 billion (US$217 million) is allocated for the campus this year.

Industry Recovery Challenges

Macau continues to face global economic headwinds, which have dampened tourism and gaming consumption, most notably due to the China-US trade war. Casino operators plan to intensify their marketing campaigns for the latter half of 2025 to stimulate revenue growth. Seaport Research Partners projects a modest 4% year-on-year GGR increase for the year, but it will likely not hit the initially anticipated mark.

Analysts have noted a recovery pattern where the VIP gaming sector outperforms base mass visitation, particularly overnight stays, which have lagged significantly. The drop in local and day-trip visitors from mainland China remains the propelling factor behind the revised GGR forecast. It reflects the ongoing consumer caution and discretionary spending in gaming and tourism.

Pending Legislative Review

The revised 2025 budget has been submitted to Macau’s Legislative Assembly for deliberation and approval. If ratified, it will determine government spending for the rest of the year, prioritizing operational efficiency and development projects despite economic constraints. Still, analysts maintain cautious optimism for the sector’s gradual recovery and a stronger performance after the summer.