Sector Momentum in Recent Months
Despite a slow start in January and February, Macau’s gaming sector showed renewed vigor in June. Gross Gaming Revenue totaled MOP21.06 billion, and tax revenues hit MOP8.16 billion (US$1.01 billion).
The tax figures represent a 12.4% month-on-month increase and a 4.9% year-on-year gain. The half year cumulative GGR reached MOP118.77 billion (US$14.69 billion), up 4.4% YoY, propelled by June’s 19% annual GGR surge.
Analysts note an improving trajectory, with CLSA revising its 2025 GGR forecast upward to US$30.1 billion, a 7.6% year-on-year increase. The investment bank cites robust tourism flows, favorable currency trends, and outperformance by market leaders like Galaxy Entertainment. The June rebound underscores Macau’s capacity for recovery despite economic headwinds.
Fiscal Lag Despite Growth
The gaming tax revenue in Macau trails 2025 budgetary benchmarks, with first-half collections covering 48.6% of the annual MOP93.1 billion target. The figure is notable below 2024’s 53.6% midyear achievement. Despite the slower trajectory, the sector maintained its dominance as Macau’s dominant source of tax revenue. It contributed 86% of the SAR’s MOP52.7 billion (US$6.52 billion) H1 income, up 0.5% points year-on-year.
The revenue concentration fueled an unexpected MOP11.4 billion surplus, 166% above projections, highlighting gaming’s significant role in public finances. While its shortfalls in meeting 2025’s ambitious targets raise diversification concerns, the sector’s enduring financial nature continues to buffer Macau’s economic stability amid global uncertainties.
Tax Forecast Adjustments
Macau lawmakers ratified a bill dropping 2025’s special gaming tax projection by 5% to MOP79.8 billion, trimming the initial MOP84 billion estimate. This aligns with June’s 5% reduction in annual GGR expectations from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion, attributed to global economic volatility and evolving tourism trends.
The DSF Deputy Director Ho In Mui noted persistent shortfalls in GGR averages (from the anticipated MOP20 billion to MOP19 billion) through April, coupled with cautious consumer behavior, necessitated the adjustment.
