South African Bookmakers Call for Ban on Prediction Markets

South African bookmakers are pushing for unregulated prediction markets to be blocked after hundreds of thousands of rand were wagered on who will become Johannesburg’s next mayor.

The South African Bookmakers’ Association, known as SABA, published a position paper on 27 July 2026 warning that prediction markets are allowing South Africans to bet on political, economic and sporting events outside the country’s existing gambling framework.

SABA argues that these platforms should be treated as illegal offshore gambling operators until South Africa introduces dedicated laws covering licensing, consumer protection, taxation and market integrity.

Johannesburg Mayoral Market Sparks Concern

The debate intensified after reports revealed that more than R700,000 had been wagered on the identity of Johannesburg’s next mayor through Polymarket.

Polymarket allows users to purchase positions based on whether a future event will or will not happen. Prices rise and fall according to market activity, effectively showing the probability traders place on each possible outcome.

Unlike a traditional bookmaker, the platform generally facilitates transactions between participants rather than accepting the other side of each wager itself.

SABA says this structure makes prediction markets functionally similar to betting exchanges, even when the platforms describe themselves as forecasting or information markets.

Prediction markets are, in substance, exchange betting products operating under a different label.

The association argues that changing the terminology does not change the underlying activity. Participants are still risking money on uncertain future events with the intention of making a profit.

Political Betting Creates New Integrity Risks

Prediction markets can cover almost any event with a verifiable outcome. This includes elections, political appointments, legislative votes, interest-rate decisions, company announcements, international conflicts and sporting events.

SABA believes political markets create risks that go beyond those associated with ordinary sports betting.

Someone with confidential information about an appointment, government contract or regulatory decision could potentially trade before that information becomes public.

The association says South Africa does not currently have a monitoring system designed to identify manipulation connected to political prediction markets, describing this as a significant regulatory blind spot.

Why SABA Wants Stronger Controls

SABA identified several areas it believes must be addressed before prediction markets can be considered for legal operation in South Africa.

Prediction Markets Fall Into a Legal Grey Area

SABA’s position paper does not itself change South African law. The association represents bookmakers and does not have the authority to ban a platform or introduce new gambling regulations.

However, it wants policymakers and regulators to formally recognise prediction markets as exchange-style betting products.

It has recommended a wider review involving gambling law, financial-market regulation, electoral legislation, anti-money laundering requirements and consumer protection.

Pressure Growing on Offshore Gambling Platforms

The prediction-market debate comes as South African authorities increase their focus on unlicensed online gambling.

The National Gambling Board has recently sought a system capable of monitoring, tracking and blocking illegal online gambling websites. The regulator also maintains that online gambling is generally prohibited, apart from permitted online betting offered by bookmakers licensed in South Africa.