Macau Casino GGR Takes a Hit as the World Cup Kicks Off

Macau's casino sector has logged a softer start to June, with analysts linking the slowdown to the FIFA World Cup. Gaming revenue dipped as the tournament drew player attention elsewhere. Citigroup still expects a rebound later in the summer, citing an active lineup of concerts and events. The bank estimates that Macau generated roughly MOP9.0 billion ($1.12 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) over the first 14 days of June, averaging about MOP586 million daily.

World Cup Pulls VIP and Mass Market Spend Lower

That daily figure marks a sharp drop from May, sitting about 20% below last month's average of roughly MOP729 million. It also trails the first week of June, which averaged around MOP700 million daily, by about 16%. Citi tied the decline largely to the World Cup, which kicked off on June 11 and runs through July 19. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that the tournament appears to be pulling gambling spend away from Macau casinos.

This year's expanded format, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches, could deepen the impact compared with previous tournaments.

Citi's data showed VIP volume fell 15% to 18% in the first half of June versus May, while mass-market GGR slipped 10% to 13%. VIP hold rates in the second week also came in weaker than in week one.

June Forecast Holds Despite World Cup Slowdown

Despite the rocky start, Citigroup has not revised its June outlook. The bank still projects full-month GGR of MOP19.0 billion, a 10% year-on-year drop. Reaching that figure would require daily revenue of roughly MOP613 million to MOP625 million for the remainder of June.

Analysts also flagged a tough comparison. Last June benefited from concerts by Cantopop star Jacky Cheung, which set a high bar for this year. Citi expects GGR to fall 10% year-on-year in June and 5% in July, before conditions improve when the tournament wraps up.

Events and Stock Picks Point to a Summer Rebound

Several major shows are scheduled across Macau in the coming weeks. Galaxy Entertainment will host Hong Kong singer Keung To at Galaxy Arena, while Sands China will feature Taiwanese singer Wakin Chau at the Londoner Arena. Citi said these events could help offset a potential decline in GGR.

Looking further ahead, the bank expects a swift GGR recovery by mid-July, driven by performances from K-pop acts Babymonster, TWS, and Enhypen, as well as Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan and the NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks. Citi forecasts 6.5% full-year GGR growth for 2026 and 5.7% growth in the second half of the year. The bank called any near-term stock pullback a buying opportunity, keeping Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China among its top picks.