Why the Grand Martingale Betting System Doesn’t Work

grend martingale betting system

For centuries, casual bettors and hardcore gamblers have been attempting to build betting systems and strategies that can beat the house. Ever since roulette took Europe by storm, it’s been a prime candidate for strategies. Eventually, so too did blackjack, with systems being preferred to strategies for those who didn’t fancy doing the stacks of reading.

A common name circling betting strategies of the modern online casino scene is the Martingale. However, when this fails, some turn to the more glamorously-named Grand Martingale. As is often the case, it’s promised to be a proven method of bringing in returns. So, let’s explore if the Grand Martingale betting system works.

What is the Grand Martingale Betting System?

The Grand Martingale betting system is a method of increasing your wager to recover from losses. You play the same bet each time on evens returns options until you lose. Then, you double the wage and add one unit to the bet. If that loses, it’s double again with another single unit added. This continues until you win.

Of the three Martingale betting systems that can be applied to games like roulette and blackjack, the Grand Martingale is by far the riskiest. It aims to build on the Martingale method by not just returning wagers after a losing streak, but also adding a pocket of wins – which comes from the single additional added unit.

Here’s how the Grand Martingale betting system can play out:

  • Have the base wager as £10 and bet it on an evens returns option;
  • After a win, you double the wager (to £20), as well as add a single unit (£10), for a £30 wager;
  • The next one loses, so you double the wager (£60), and add another single unit for a £70 wager;
  • If the next one wins, you get £140 in return from a £110 total of lost wagers.

As you can see, the aim is to recuperate losses and pocket a win at the same time. This increases the wager each time more so than any other Martingale strategy. It’s easily the most taxing on your bankroll and is the fastest to hitting bet size caps.

When can the Grand Martingale Betting System Work?

The thinking behind the Grand Martingale betting system is that eventually, a losing streak will end, which is true, in theory. On bets like red or black on roulette, you have a 48.6 per cent chance to be correct on any given spin. So, the Grand Martingale betting system can work as long as you continue betting until you win.

When can the Grand Martingale Betting System Fail?

The Grand Martingale betting system can fail if you reach your bankroll limit or the wager limit of the table. Starting with a higher base wager, you’ll have fewer attempts to break the losing streak. As each loss double the wager and adds another unit, you can very quickly approach the wager ceiling, which would end your run.

Why the Grand Martingale Betting System Doesn’t Work

The Grand Martingale betting system doesn’t work because there’s a cap at every table, and everyone should play within their means. Many online casino tables have a maximum wager of around £500, while even the VIP tables or high-roller games will cap out at £1,000 or £5,000. These may seem like unreachable numbers, but with the Grand Martingale, even starting with a £5 wager will surpass £1,000 after eight consecutive losses.

While the standard Martingale betting system doesn’t work either, it at least gives more chances for a very large bankroll to potentially turn in the win needed to break even. With the Grand Martingale method, because of the additional wager of a single unit, it’s exponentially riskier. It puts more money on the line with fewer chances for those wagers to turn in a win.

Even when you bet on the likes of evens returns roulette places, each round has a 51.4 per cent probability of producing a loss. As such, in each round, it’s more likely that you’ll lose. Even in a pure 50:50 chance game, it’s still possible to go on a long losing streak, even if you stick with the exact same bet of two options. At a £1 base bet, you’ll need to make a wager of £63 after your fifth loss, amounting to £119 in lost bets.

In fact, it’s slightly more probable for a losing streak to occur than a winning streak – not that a winning streak matters for the Grand Martingale betting system. The probability of four wins occurring in a row on a red or black bet on European roulette is 6.08 per cent. The probability of four consecutive losses on that same bet is 6.4 per cent.

What’s the Best Betting Strategy to Use in Online Casino Gaming?

The best betting strategy to use in online casino gaming is to set a limit on your bankroll and don’t exceed it at all. As the aim of playing casino games is to have fun and win money, be sure to put any of your winnings to one side, and once your set bankroll is done, finish gambling.

It’s important to remember to never fall into the trap of the Gambler’s Fallacy, with which you believe that an outcome will arrive because it hasn’t for a series of turns. This is the kind of mindset that fuels a strategy like the Grand Martingale and can result in huge losses. So, it’s best to avoid any strategy that could see you bet at increasing risk on an increasingly less probable outcome at the end of a series.

The best way to enjoy online casino games or any other form of gambling is to only play for fun and to only bet within your limits. For further advice on how to gamble safely and responsibly, refer to the resources provided by BeGambleAware.

Stephen Tabone is a prolific author of books that analyse how casino-goers can profit from randomness. The London-born betting strategist has honed his expertise in number combinations and patterns for nearly 30 years, creating rule-based systems that reduce risk and raise long-term profits. His acclaimed Baccarat and Roulette publications are eminently readable; the focus varies from ‘shattering the house edge’, to capitalising on even-money betting patterns, to dismantling a player’s choice paralysis. His incisive books include the ‘The Ultimate Golden Secret Baccarat Winning Strategy’, ‘The Clockwork Betting System’, ‘The Ultimate Silver Bullet Proof Baccarat Winning Strategy’, and ‘The Martingale-Tabone Fusion Betting System’, among others. Outside of his career in systemisation, Mr. Tabone is a regular opinion piece contributor for online casino sites. His qualifications span multiple disciplines, including Law and Business. He possesses a Bachelor’s Degree in Creative Writing and Philosophy from the University of Greenwich. His other interests are in similarly high-stakes fields such as political analysis, investment and stock trading.

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