Virginia Labeled a “Complex” Casino Market by Research Analysts

Virginia was highlighted as a potential hotbed for casinos — but one with complications.

David Katz summarized the findings of Jefferies Equity Research analysts who toured existing gambling facilities in the Commonwealth on May 20-21 in an investor’s note. He ultimately shared that the state was a “dynamic and complex gaming market” that is likely to experience an evolution due to the level of capital investment that is being poured into development. 

Additionally, Katz claimed that iGaming legalization was not only a possibility, but a simple waiting game until lawmakers pass the necessary legislation.

Promising growth

According to Katz, American casinos are struggling to grow. That would seemingly be influenced by a multitude of factors, including the shift to an increasingly digital world, economic restrictions, and the proliferation of different money-making options, including online casinos, sports betting, prediction markets, fantasy contests, and more.

The analysis noted that the proper utilization of capital is crucial to casino development. New York and Illinois were highlighted as examples of states adding new retail gaming options and that have positive long-term outlooks.

Specific to Virginia, Katz noted that Boyd Gaming’s $750 million Norfolk Casino and Cordish Gaming’s $1.4 billion Live! in Petersburg were the most expensive properties for the respective companies.

Churchill Downs also spent $3 billion on Virginia locations, while Caesars Entertainment, Rush Street Gaming, and Hard Rock International spent a combined $1.7 billion on their respective locations.

Part of Churchill Downs’ expenditure involved historical racing machines in Richmond. Katz suggested that the nearby Live! location would pose a “credible risk” and would result in Churchill Downs focusing on its core group of customers.

The analysis also highlighted upcoming competition in the southeastern part of the state. Rivers Portsmouth could be threatened by Boyd’s Norfolk property, which Katz believes will result in Rivers expanding its non-gaming options, including its $65 million under-construction hotel tower.

Pumping the breaks on iGaming?

The next chapter of Virginia’s growth as a gambling market could come from iGaming. Only seven states have legal and live iGaming industries — all of them centralized in the midwest to northeastern part of the country.

Katz highlighted how state lawmakers had made several attempts at legalizing online casinos, in addition to gray-market slot machines and other retail locations. However, Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D), who vetoed a bill that would’ve allowed the creation of a casino in Fairfax County, has been apprehensive to the idea of the expansion of online gambling.

“Prior legislative sessions and voting outcomes should not be viewed as reliable momentum indicators, given evolving political and social dynamics at the state level,” Katz wrote.

The Virginia Lottery reported that casino gaming revenue reached $1.8 billion in 2025, up 28.1 percent year-over-year. Revenue from traditional games was up 32.4 percent during the same period, while live-dealer table games were up 34.5 percent. 

Slot machines also excelled, while retail and mobile sports betting hit $846.1 million, up 23.5 percent. 

All five of the state’s maximum casino facilities have been fulfilled, with construction ongoing on permanent locations in Petersburg and Norfolk.