Research questions accuracy of Gambling Survey for Great Britain

New research presented at the UNLV Eadington Conference 2026 has raised fresh concerns about the accuracy of the Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB).

Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners, compared the survey's participation estimates against administrative data obtained directly from licensed gambling operators. His analysis concluded that the GSGB consistently reported substantially higher levels of gambling participation than operator records across every category examined.

The GSGB was launched by the Gambling Commission in 2023 as a dedicated online survey involving around 20,000 respondents each year. It has since become a key source of evidence used by regulators and policymakers to assess gambling behaviour in Great Britain.

Large gaps identified across multiple sectors

Waugh's research focused on three gambling products:

• Land-based casinos.
• Football pools.
• Betting exchanges.

For casinos, he used data supplied by the Betting and Gaming Council covering the entire licensed casino market. The GSGB estimated between 1.75 million and 2.25 million casino visits during the period analysed, compared with just over one million visits recorded by operators.

After accounting for the fact that many visitors do not participate in table games, Waugh concluded that casino participation estimates were between 408% and 628% higher than figures suggested by administrative data.

The largest discrepancy was found in football pools participation. Because The Football Pools Limited is the sole operator in the market, its customer database provides a complete record of participation.

While the GSGB estimated around 863,000 unique football pools players, operator records showed approximately 109,000 customers. According to Waugh, this implied an overstatement of around 694%.

For betting exchanges, data from Betfair, which he estimated represents around 85% of the market, suggested total participation of roughly 172,000 customers after scaling. The GSGB estimate stood at approximately 612,000 participants.

Concerns over survey methodology

Waugh argued that the differences could be explained by well-known survey challenges, including topic salience bias, low response rates and broader selection bias affecting who chooses to participate.

He said the findings pointed to "systemic bias" within the GSGB that may affect both participation and frequency estimates.

"The data reveals substantial over-reporting of gambling participation in the GSGB compared to what is actually happening in the regulated market." - Waugh.

He added that regulatory decisions should be informed by a range of evidence sources rather than relying on a single survey.

The research also revisits earlier concerns from the Office for Statistics Regulation. The OSR previously recommended that the Gambling Commission communicate the risk that the GSGB could overestimate gambling behaviour.

"The GSGB is the largest survey of its kind in the world and has been subject to significant external scrutiny by those with recognised expertise in survey design." – The Gambling Commission

Waugh said operator administrative data should play a greater role in testing and validating survey findings before they are used to inform future regulatory policy.