BGC forecasts £1bn in illegal Premier League bets next season

The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has forecast that the amount staked illegally on Premier League football could rise to approximately £1bn during the 2027/28 season.

The trade body expects unlicensed operators to take as much as £800m in Premier League bets during the current campaign. It estimates that around £20m was wagered through the black market over the opening weekend alone.

According to the BGC, a typical round of Premier League fixtures generates between £15m and £20m in bets for operators outside the regulated British market.

However, the organisation has not published the underlying data or methodology used to calculate these figures. Its announcement describes them only as the result of “analysis”, meaning the totals should be treated as industry forecasts rather than confirmed measurements of black-market activity.

The figures also refer to the amount staked, not the revenue retained by operators. A forecast of £1bn in bets therefore does not mean that illegal businesses would earn £1bn or that the Treasury would lose the same amount in tax.

BGC links forecast to betting duty increase

The BGC expects the annual total to grow by around £200m next season, when the tax paid by licensed remote betting operators is due to increase.

From 1 April 2027, the rate of General Betting Duty applied to most remote bets will rise from 15% to 25%. Remote bets on UK horseracing will remain at 15%. The same goes for qualifying bets placed through self-service terminals in licensed premises. General Betting Duty is charged on bookmakers’ net stake receipts (essentially their gross betting profits) rather than the total amount wagered by customers.

The separate increase in Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% took effect in April 2026. That tax applies to remote gaming products such as online casino games rather than conventional Premier League sports betting.

The BGC argues that increasing the costs faced by licensed bookmakers makes it harder for them to compete with offshore operators that do not pay British gambling taxes or comply with domestic regulation. However, its latest announcement does not explain how the General Betting Duty increase was modelled to produce the predicted £200m rise in illegal Premier League stakes.

The government has said the higher rate reflects the growth and lower operating costs of online betting. It retained a lower rate for remote betting than remote gaming after considering differences between the products, including their associated risks of harm.

“These operators pay no tax, fund nothing and answer to no one.”
— Grainne Hurst, BGC chief executive

Government considers unlicensed sponsorship ban

The warning comes at the beginning of the first Premier League season without gambling companies appearing as front-of-shirt sponsors.

Clubs agreed voluntarily to remove those logos from matchday shirt fronts after the end of the 2025/26 season. Other forms of gambling sponsorship, including sleeve branding and stadium advertising, remain possible. The BGC has also backed government proposals to prevent gambling companies without a British licence from sponsoring sports teams and events.

Under the current system, an unlicensed operator can legally sponsor a British club provided its gambling services are inaccessible to consumers in Great Britain. This means that an unlicensed sponsor is not automatically operating illegally in the domestic market. Nevertheless, the government believes these partnerships can increase awareness of offshore brands and encourage consumers to bypass restrictions such as geoblocking.

A DCMS consultation launched in July proposes making physical advertising or sponsorship by unlicensed gambling companies a criminal offence across Great Britain.

The preferred implementation date is August 2027, shortly before the season in which the BGC expects illegal Premier League betting to reach £1bn. The consultation remains open until 9 September 2026.