Macau Golden Week Visitors Surge, but Analysts Stay Cautious on Revenue

Macau set a single-day arrivals record during Golden Week, yet analysts remain cautious about casino revenue.

Preliminary police figures show nearly 751,000 visitors entered the city from October 1 through 4. Sunday, October 4, brought 210,325 arrivals, the highest daily total of the holiday so far. Casino revenue tells a different story: September gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell 1.2% year on year to MOP18.06 billion. It was the fourth straight month of year-over-year declines.

Arrivals are climbing, but brokerages are trimming their forecasts. The open question is whether record crowds will translate into higher casino spending.

Record Golden Week Arrivals

Daily arrivals over the first three days averaged 180,183, up 27.4% year over year. Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for about 86.5% of those arrivals, and their numbers rose 34.1%.

That pace comfortably beat the 150,000 daily arrivals projected by the Macao Government Tourism Office. This year's holiday runs from October 1 through 7, one day shorter than in 2025. The tourism office also expects hotel occupancy to exceed 90%. Police forecast between 5.2 million and 5.4 million border crossings across the full holiday.

September Revenue Softens

The arrival figures follow a soft run in casino revenue. Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported September GGR of MOP18.06 billion. That was the year's weakest month and 17.5% below August's total. It also fell short of CLSA's mid-September estimate of MOP18.6 billion. Third-quarter GGR totaled MOP60.21 billion.

For the first nine months, GGR rose 3.2% year over year to MOP187.12 billion. CLSA expects fourth-quarter GGR to fall 0.9% year over year to MOP65.5 billion. Jeffrey Kiang, an analyst at the brokerage, said investors "do not see imminent signs that might reaccelerate gaming revenue growth." The brokerage still forecasts full-year GGR growth of 2.3%. J.P. Morgan forecasts October GGR of MOP22.6 billion, down 6% year over year.

Visitors Versus Spending

Rising arrivals do not always lift revenue.

Last year's eight-day Golden Week drew more than 1.14 million visitors, up 16% from 2024. Even so, Seaport Research Partners estimated that spending per visitor fell 12% during the holiday.

October 2025 GGR reached MOP24.09 billion, setting a high bar for this October.

Mass-market play, which depends on visitor volume, made up about 73% of Macau's 2025 GGR, the International Monetary Fund said. VIP baccarat accounted for roughly 26% of GGR in the second quarter of 2026, down from 46.2% in 2019. Overall GGR remains about 15% below its 2019 level. The DICJ will publish October figures in early November. Those numbers will show whether the holiday crowds turned into casino spending.