AGA Predicts Little Growth for the 2026 NFL Season Handle

US sportsbooks may need to temper their expectations for the 2026 NFL season.

The American Gaming Association announced its prediction that the regulated sports betting industry will see a handle of $29.5 billion for the upcoming season. By comparison, the 2025 handle was $29.4 billion. That means the group is predicting minimal growth for the first time since PASPA was overturned in 2018.

The NFL season is set to kick off on Wednesday, September 9.

AGA Blames Prediction Markets

The sports betting lobby group didn’t mince words when explaining their reasoning for the prediction. 

In a press release, AGA President and CEO Bill Miller made it clear that sports prediction markets are to blame for the lower expectations and called out the continued danger they present.

“These “prediction market” platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment. Kalshi and other “prediction markets” say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”

DraftKings Carries Some Blame

At the end of August, DraftKings announced it was expanding sports markets on its prediction platform to non-betting states. That includes Texas and California, which are two of the largest in the nation. 

It also launched in Florida, where Hard Rock Bet is the only regulated sportsbook available. The operator is hoping its well-established brand will help win customers away from the Seminole Tribe-owned platform in the massive market. 

Because DraftKings would be exempt from the regulations and fees facing the tribe, it has a chance to offer cheaper pricing for bettors throughout the NFL season.

World Cup Deals Pay Off

Prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket both saw spikes in volume during the 2026 World Cup. This came after the duo reached advertising deals with FIFA, ensuring their branding and ads were visible throughout the tournament. The deal paid off, as the operators both saw significant spikes in volume.

While the NFL has been more wary of the controversial sports prediction industry, the World Cup boost will help negate that. Kalshi and Polymarket were able to sign up many new players in states across ht US, and remain available in almost all 50 states. 

With accounts created and containing leftover funds from the World Cup, the operators expect many of those users to return for the busy football betting season.