Netflix Short-Turn Documentary to Reveal Prediction Markets’ Rise in Gambling

Netflix is releasing a documentary on the rise of prediction markets, which have grown to challenge casinos and sportsbooks, all while denying their connection to gambling. 

The ever-popular streaming platform released an announcement on Thursday, claiming its new Instadoc documentary series would focus on prediction markets. An episode titled “The Prediction Games” will air on July 26 and will take viewers inside these platforms, which allow users to risk and win money on seemingly any major or minor world event.

Netflix noted in its announcement that $5.6 billion was wagered on these platforms just for the World Cup Final, which it called “a staggering figure that underscores how mainstream the phenomenon has become.”

Prediction markets tied to gambling industry

Prediction markets have consistently denied their relation to retail and online casinos, sports betting platforms, and other gambling mediums. They brand themselves as financial instruments, which allow users to compete in a peer-to-peer system without house-imposed vigs.

The new documentary will take the audience through the general operations of these platforms: how theft works, where the money flows, legal discussions, and the fallout from various controversies. 

Netflix included interviews with the CEOs of the two leading prediction platforms, Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour and Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan, as well as the sole chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal body in charge of regulating prediction platforms, Michael S. Selig.

“Prediction markets are a deceptively sophisticated idea, with roots far back in American history,” the announcement read. “But the allure of easy money can carry real risk: when bettors harass war reporters to publish fake news and hackers manufacture Spotify streams to win millions, has reality itself become a target for manipulation? Has the wisdom of crowds turned into mob rule?”

These questions are not rhetorical. Prediction platforms have markets in finance, entertainment, pop culture, sports, politics, weather, and other industries. Numerous scandals have been created from the rise of prediction markets, while tensions between state and federal regulators are beginning to boil over.

Money, scandals, and legality

Instadocs is Netflix’s “quick-turn documentary series” that is meant to highlight trending topics as they happen, as opposed to later in history, like many other documentaries. The Prediction Games is the second installment of the series, following the May 30 release of Instadoc: Alex Murdaugh, Unconvicted.

The Prediction Games was produced by Words + Pictures, which produced Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story and Full Speed: The Daytona 500.

The documentary arrives at an intriguing time in prediction markets’ existence. Licensed platforms reported $50.8 billion in combined notional trading volume in June, thanks to the World Cup, and are expected to soar even further toward mainstream audiences with the NFL season and midterm elections on the horizon.

The majority of state gaming regulators have rebuked prediction operators, accusing them of operating illegal betting platforms. But instead of letting users play slot machines or live-dealer table games, they let them “bet” on events that are either reserved for licensed sportsbooks or outright banned. 

A slew of prediction-based scandals have also been reported. Spotify stream botting, politicians profiting from appearances at events, soldiers predicting military operations, and even President Donald Trump’s teleprompter operator using inside information to guess what words his boss would say during a speech have all been reported.

All of those and more reasons have led many to believe that the legality of prediction markets will one day end up being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. But if and until that happens, Netflix’s documentary will detail the ongoing spread of the new phenomenon.