Brazil's Betting Ban Faces Uncertain Future After Bolsonaro Leads First Round

Brazil's betting ban faces an uncertain future in Congress after Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the presidential election's first round. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued the ban as a provisional measure on Sept. 25, and Congress must approve it for it to become permanent.

Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes on Oct. 4, ahead of Lula's 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. The two meet in an Oct. 25 runoff. Betting platforms had to go offline starting Oct. 6. As of Oct. 2, Congress had not scheduled a vote.

Ban Rules Take Effect

Provisional Measure 1,394/2026 bans the operation, offering, brokering, and advertising of fixed-odds betting nationwide, according to Agência Senado, the Senate's news agency. It also applies to foreign companies that serve bettors in Brazil.

New deposits were barred starting Sept. 25, and players had until 11:59 p.m. Brasília time on Oct. 5 to withdraw their balances. Banks have until Oct. 14 to complete refunds to bettors. Existing operator authorizations expire Oct. 25, the same day as the runoff.

Lula defended the measure at the signing ceremony. "I decided to take a necessary, tough, and drastic measure," he said, according to AFP. The government cites debt, depression, and suicide risk as reasons for the ban. Platforms that keep offering bets after the deadline face blocking orders from regulators.

Outlook in Congress

Its initial 60-day validity period ends Nov. 23, according to Rádio Senado, and can be extended once for another 60 days.

Senate President Davi Alcolumbre extended the deadline for amendments to Oct. 13, Brazilian media reported. Lawmakers had filed at least 26 amendments by Oct. 2. Several would exempt sports betting or protect soccer club sponsorships.

Neither Alcolumbre nor Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta had convened party leaders as of that date. No chair or rapporteur had been named for the joint committee that reviews the measure. Other proposals would refund part of the license fees operators paid. Betting companies are preparing court challenges, the Associated Press reported.

What the Runoff Means for the Ban

The first-round result clouds the outlook for approval. Lula has made the ban a campaign theme. Before the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro called the ban an "electoral measure." Public comments on the Senate's e-Cidadania portal ran heavily in favor of the measure. Nearly 199,000 participants supported it and 70,600 opposed it, Agência Senado reported.

The government estimates the ban will cut tax revenue by R$1.541 billion (about $309.54 million) this year. One analyst told the AP that Congress could let the measure lapse without a vote. The government is also seeking a separate bill that would make running a betting operation a crime punishable by two to six years in prison.

Whoever wins the Oct. 25 runoff takes office in January, possibly before Congress settles the ban's fate.