Brazil Betting Ban May Send R$25B to Unlicensed Operators

Brazil's betting ban could push about R$25 billion ($4.9 billion) in annual wagering to unlicensed operators. That is the central estimate in a new briefing from the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA).

IBIA published the briefing, titled Brazil: The Cost of Prohibition, in October. It draws on H2 Gambling Capital data and IBIA's own suspicious betting alerts. The group argues the ban will weaken player protection and sports integrity monitoring.

Federal betting licenses lapse on October 25. Congress has 120 days from the September 25 measure that imposed the ban to confirm or reject it.

Illegal Market Could Hit R$42B, Costing Players and the State

H2 Gambling Capital valued Brazil’s regulated market at about R$40 billion ($7.8 billion) a year on an annualized basis before the ban. It estimates that about 60% of that spending will move to unlicensed operators. That shift would lift the illegal market from R$17 billion ($3.3 billion) to R$42 billion ($8.2 billion).

IBIA summed up its position in the briefing: "A ban removes the licensed supply. It does not remove the demand." Players who move to unlicensed sites lose the identity checks, self-exclusion tools and payment safeguards built into the licensed system. The state also loses betting tax and licensing revenue. Traffic to licensed sites fell 74% in the first week after they went dark.

Suspicious Bet Alerts Rose Under Regulation, but Reporting Ends

IBIA reported 25 suspicious betting alerts on Brazilian sports in 2025, the regulated market's first full year. That compares with an average of about 11 a year from 2021 to 2024. The group says the jump reflects stronger monitoring, not more match-fixing.

Under the regulated system, licensed operators had to report suspicious bets and join an integrity body. Soccer accounted for 51 of the 68 alerts reported since 2021. Basketball and tennis each produced six alerts.

With no licensed operators, no one is now required to report suspicious betting.

Regulators and police also lose access to customer account data. That data has supported recent disciplinary sanctions in sports and criminal convictions, IBIA says.

IBIA Rated Brazil's Framework 77/100 and Urges a Rethink

IBIA rated Brazil's pre-ban framework 77 out of 100, placing it between Portugal (68) and Great Britain (86). Brazil's federally regulated market launched on January 1, 2025. According to the briefing, more than 80 operators held federal licenses before the ban, and 70% of combined betting and gaming revenue had moved onshore.

IBIA urged decision-makers to reconsider the prohibition and decide the market's future through the ordinary legislative process. That process, it said, should include industry consultation and a published impact assessment. It also wants enforcement to focus on unlicensed operators. Lawmakers in Congress have already filed 99 amendments to the measure.