The Dangers of Truth Social’s Impending Prediction Market Launch

The President of the United States may have just delivered a knockout blow to the country’s sports betting industry.

Trump Media has announced it will soon be launching prediction markets on its Truth Social platform through a deal with crypto.com. That will include sports markets, despite growing resistance from the states. They will also cover elections, economic information, oil prices, and more.

The President’s involvement in the controversial industry creates several very real dangers that will affect the lives of Americans across the US.

Fair Play? No Way!

While the President doesn’t currently run Trump Media, they are able to begin offering these sports prediction markets. The problem is that Trump still seems to be leading from behind the scenes, which is serious.

The President has a reputation for doing whatever he wants at any moment, making massive shifts in the stock markets a daily occurrence. That means he has the power to influence factors such as inflation and other economic data. 

Trump has also not had a problem with directly interfering in local elections, threatening to withhold funding from states that don’t elect his chosen candidates. 

These all create an unfair advantage and eliminate the idea of fair play. It would be similar to playing blackjack against a dealer who can look at the entire deck and deal whicher cards they want. No matter how well you play, the game will go whichever way the dealer wants.

Problem Gambling or Freedom?

Aside from the obvious concerns about the fairness of Truth’s prediction platform, another ethical dilemma is dominating public discourse.

While they will often avoid the question, we have heard influential voices in the sports prediction market space call for an end to problem gambling protocols. They have been trumpeting the idea that Americans have the freedom to spend their money as they choose, whatever the consequences.

All prediction markets are facing similar dilemmas, but they don’t have the President’s name on their company. How many Americans will lose life-changing money to their own President over the coming years? Given the crackdowns on US media, those stories may never be heard, leading millions to suffer in silence without the resources needed to recover.

Trump Has Control of CFTC

The final —and possibly most significant — danger is that prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That department’s leadership is directly chosen by the President, who recently nominated ally Michael Selig. Trump has removed department heads who do not comply with his requests, leading us to question whether the CFTC will genuinely be a fair regulator. 

If approved by Congress, he would have the power to view proprietary information of Truth’s rivals and levy penalties against them. That information would give the prediction platform a massive advantage, and it would be hard for their rivals to stop it. 

Trump’s previous CFTC nominee currently stands accused of sharing that kind of information with Kalshi during the President’s first term.