Reuters Poll Finds Most Americans Oppose Election Prediction Markets

Weeks ahead of the United States midterm elections, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows most Americans oppose prediction markets for trading on U.S. elections. 

The poll ran from September 30 to October 5 and found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose trading on elections through prediction markets. The survey included 4,506 adults online, with a two-percentage-point margin of error. Additionally, 43% of respondents opposed wagering on professional sports, while 29% supported it. 

Prediction market platforms have been a hotbed of legal issues, as you can now trade not only on elections but on sports, too. It's reached a boiling point, and New Jersey has petitioned the Supreme Court. 

Lawmakers Raise Concerns Over Election Markets and Insider Trading

Lawmakers worry these markets could undermine public faith in democracy and allow those with inside, confidential knowledge to profit. Those concerns aren't necessarily unfounded either. Instances include an Army master sergeant who used Kalshi to profit $500,000 on trades related to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's capture; a teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who had to settle with Kalshi; and more. 

“It’s why more than 90% of visits to Polymarket are to view markets, not to trade,” a Polymarket spokesperson said. “Recognition of the public value of prediction markets is growing, but they’re still brand new to most, and it’s going to take some time for the public to learn more and see the real value.”

Americans Also Oppose Military and Policy Prediction Markets

The poll also showed that 65% of respondents oppose trading on anything involving the US military and 63% oppose anything involving policy decisions. 

The Commodity and Futures Trading Commission contends that these event contracts are financial products, not gambling, while the states argue they are unregulated gambling. The respondents mostly side with the states. 

“Prediction markets should have the same level of regulations as gambling,” Janessa Manning, a 48-year-old Democrat respondent from Detroit, told Reuters. “Even though they pretend they aren’t gambling, they are.”