NFL Backs New Jersey in Supreme Court Fight Over Prediction Markets

With so much legal turmoil surrounding prediction markets, including a favorable Third Circuit ruling for Kalshi involving New Jersey, the state petitioned the Supreme Court for guidance on prediction market platforms, and the NFL appears to be on New Jersey's side. 

On Thursday, the NFL filed an amicus brief arguing that sports contracts aren't swaps and should be governed by state gambling laws. 

“But now a new form of sports betting has emerged that undermines these efforts and threatens game integrity: sports betting on prediction markets,” the NFL's brief stated. 

While the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, the Sixth and Ninth Circuits did not, siding with states like Tennessee, Ohio, Nevada, and California. 

This NFL brief comes after the league partnered with sports betting operators DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics. That said, all three of those companies offer prediction market platforms. The NFL is questioning whether prediction market platforms can meet guidelines under a thinned-out Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff. 

NFL Argues Sports Event Contracts Are Not Swaps Under Dodd-Frank

Continuing with the brief, the NFL sided with rulings from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits. One key factor in this case is the Dodd-Frank Act and whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under it. 

“Read in its statutory and historical context, Dodd-Frank’s definition of ‘swap’ reaches only instruments created and used for the purpose of hedging preexisting risk,” the brief said.

The NFL argued that sports contracts are exactly the opposite.

“Given that backdrop, it is inconceivable that Congress, responding to the 2008 financial crisis, effectively enabled nationwide legalization of sports bets dressed up as ‘swaps,’” the brief continued.

The NFL has no prediction market partnerships because it wants stronger regulation. 

“The NFL has long engaged with state gaming authorities to support core integrity protections in the sports gambling market, including rules prohibiting certain wagers that are highly susceptible to manipulation or are otherwise inherently objectionable,” the brief also said.

The league has been proactive in involving prediction market platforms, sending them notices to remove "objectionable" markets. 

While two outlets withdrew some markets, the NFL wasn't happy. 

“Although the NFL, among others, has encouraged the Commission and the DCMs to adopt safeguards and rules for sports wagering like those in the state-regulated world of traditional [legal sports books], the Commission and DCMs so far have stuck to a more laissez-faire approach,” the brief said.

NFL Raises Concerns Over CFTC Oversight and Self-Certification

Going back to the "thinned-out" CFTC, the Commission saw a 25% cut when President Donald Trump took office, and as of September 2025, there were 543 employees. 

“Without adequate staff engaged in oversight and enforcement, even the best regulations cannot meaningfully ensure game integrity and consumer protection,” the NFL said.

The NFL also isn't a fan of self-certification for prediction market platforms. 

“Although the Commission may initiate a review and stay a contract to determine compliance, given the novel nature of many sports-related event contracts and the high volume of self-certifications, this current approach fails to provide even the most basic integrity protections,” the league argued.

That said, the NFL could partner with these platforms later.