European Playoff Pots Set After Latest FIFA Ranking

With qualifying over and 12 European teams punching their ticket for the 2026 World Cup, attention now shifts to the upcoming playoffs.

The playoff will feature 16 teams, split into four groups, or pots, of four teams each. The top four teams will advance to the tournament in June, while the rest will shift their focus to 2030. The field contains the 12 qualifying group runner-ups along with Romania, Sweden, Northern Ireland, and North Macedonia.

The 12 teams will have time to prepare, as the playoffs begin on March 26.

Draw Results Set up Paths for Qualification

The playoff draw took place earlier today, setting up four paths to qualification. The results of the draw are as follows:

• Path#1
• Semifinal 1: Italy vs. Northern Ireland
• Semifinal 2: Wales vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina
• Path#2
• Semifinal 1: Ukraine vs. Sweden
• Semifinal 2: Poland vs. Albania
• Path#3
• Semifinal 1: Turkey vs. Romania
• Semifinal 2: Slovakia vs. Kosovo
• Path#4
• Denmark vs. North Macedonia
• Czechia vs. the Republic of Ireland

All Eyes on Italy

Fans of the Azzurri can breathe a sigh of relief after not being matched with North Macedonia. The small country pulled off a stunning 1-0 upset against Italy during a 2022 playoff semi-final, dooming them to extend their World Cup drought.

On paper, Northern Ireland is an excellent matchup for the highest-ranked team in the playoffs. However, we saw a lot of fight from this squad during group play. They came close to a draw with Germany in its final match, after losing 3-1 the previous month. The team sealed its playoff spot by beating Luxembourg and Slovakia by two goals. 

Italy enters the match as a massive favorite, but their inconsistent scoring makes them vulnerable. With the pressure to end their World Cup drought mounting, all eyes will be watching how the Azzurri respond to the pressure.

Sportsbooks Back Italy, Not Sold on Other Top Seeds 

Of the four different paths, bookmakers believe three will be up for grabs.

Betting sites have made Italy a heavy favorite to advance; they aren’t sold on Poland, Turkey, or Denmark.

Turkey is a slight favorite over Slovakia to advance from their path. Kosovo and Romania follow further behind, though they still have odds under +1000. 

Denmark is in a similar spot, though their path features a massive underdog in North Macedonia. That should land them a win in the semifinals, though Azzurri fans might warn against banking on that.

Poland has been set as the smallest favorite, with odds neck-and-neck with Ukraine and Sweden. Albania isn’t far behind, showing that sportsbooks believe this is the deepest of the four groups.