Canadian Travel Drop Threatens 2026 Vegas Visits as Air Capacity Plummets

Aviation consultant Joel Van Over of Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting warned the Las Vegas authorities that Canadian flight traffic to Harry Reid International Airport has plummeted to 2006 levels. The drop creates a 200,000-seat deficit, affecting visitor numbers. Political tensions over US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and ongoing financial instability among budget airlines are driving the decline.

“Canadians have started to shy away from the United States. If you’re Canadian and doing business in the United States, you continue to travel, but if you have a choice…you may decide to go elsewhere,” Van Over told the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Board, noting significant year-on-year visitation drops. The capacity crunch poses substantial challenges to Las Vegas’ 2026 tourism recovery plans.

Canadian airlines cut U.S.-bound capacity by 10% in first quarter
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Transatlantic Gains Offset Canadian Slump

Canadian airline capacity to Las Vegas plummeted 35% in 2025 after a growth-driven 2024, hitting 2006 lows excluding pandemic disruptions.

Joel Van Over noted the decline accelerated through winter, with Q1 2026 projections suggesting further decline. “Las Vegas did nothing to cause this and is definitely a recipient of the pain and destruction that happened,” he stated, emphasizing collaboration with Canadian partners despite political headwinds.

Air France Relief

Oversees flight capacity initially surged 17% in 2024 but faltered in 2025 amid rising fees and perceived unwelcoming policies. Van Over warned that these factors compound with “global rhetoric.” However, Air France offers relief with a new thrice-weekly Paris-Las Vegas route through 2027.

The service connects 120 markets through Paris, targeting high-spending European travelers to offset summer Canadian gaps. “Parisians and Europeans spend more and fill those critical midweek nights,” Van Over emphasized.

Budget Airlines Turmoil

Las Vegas’ 2025 airline seat capacity fell 3.5% short of 2024’s record despite a decade-long 30% growth, amounting to eight million seats. Van Over described a “tale of two halves,” with a stable first-half performance followed by an 8% decline in the second half as carriers reduced commitments.

The collapse of value airlines worsened losses. Spirit Airlines, formerly Vegas’ second-largest carrier, filed for bankruptcy twice in one year and will emerge half its size, leaving aircraft gaps. Frontier’s weak earnings and leadership change risks further instability. December alone saw 8,200 daily seats cut across 37 metro areas.

Though 50% of capacity backfilled, sustainability remains uncertain. Overall, domestic value carriers withdrew 11 million seats, costing Las Vegas 2.2 million. Gains from other airlines added over one million seats, softening the blow.