MLB and NCAA Offer Conflicting Statements Over Predictions

Over the last week, we have heard two very different opinions on sports prediction markets.

It started earlier this week, when the MLB announced it would make Polymarket its official prediction market exchange. When announcing the deal, Commissioner Rob Manfred said he believed the federal regulation of predictions would make integrity monitoring far more effective.

Soon after the news broke, NCAA President Charlie Baker made another public plea for increased regulations and oversight for prediction markets. He shared that the industry is woefully unprepared for integrity monitoring, increasing the risk of point-shaving or spot-fixing.

These are very different takes on the same topic, leaving many to question which league leader is right.

MLB Deal Comes as a Surprise

Last year, federal prosecutors charged two Cleveland Guardians pitchers, including All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, with connecting with a betting scheme. The players were accused of intentionally manipulating pitches over three years, affecting dozens of games. While those cases still await trial, the scandal has rocked the league.

While MLB cozying up to the gambling industry raised some eyebrows, the commissioner also struck a deal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to improve integrity monitoring.  He claimed it would help detect suspicious betting or insider trading far faster than state regulators could. 

The MLB commissioner believes that, while new, the prediction industry will soon lead the way in integrity monitoring. 

I hope that it goes without saying that our primary concern, always first in our minds, is protecting the integrity of the game. I think in today's world, it is really important not to be chasing developments but to try to be involved and in front of those developments because our world is so fast-moving.

Baker Hasn’t Seen Enough From CFTC

NCAA President Charlie Baker has been vocal about his concerns over sports betting, and prediction markets are no exception. While the league is working with the CFTC to address integrity concerns, this hasn’t led to effective changes.

“If we don’t get anywhere with them, we’ll explore other options to deal with that,” Baker said during an appearance on CBS Mornings, referring to a recent letter the NCAA submitted as part of the CFTC’s public comment process on proposed event contract rules.

Key Difference Behind MLB, NCAA Statements

While we can dive further into why Baker and Manfred see the prediction industry in such different lights, the true reasons may have nothing to do with gambling.

Baker is fighting to protect thousands of college athletes across the country from harassment and addiction. Unlike pro leagues, Baker must focus on protecting college athletes, whose young lives could be permanently damaged by gambling. This makes him more wary of all forms of betting, including predictions.

Conversely, Manfred is fighting to keep the MLB financially viable. Fan engagement is tanking, and the league can’t find local TV partners. With the negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement leading nowhere, a lockout is becoming a real possibility. The MLB can’t afford that, giving Manfred more reason to throw his lot in with Polymakret and the CFTC.