UKGC: VPN growth makes illegal gambling harder to track

The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has warned that rising use of virtual private networks (VPNs) is making it increasingly difficult to track illegal online gambling activity.

In its latest update, the regulator said anonymising tools are distorting data and increasing uncertainty around the true scale of the black market. Recent figures show fluctuating engagement rather than sustained growth. The Commission acknowledged that measurement challenges are intensifying as consumer behaviour changes.

No clear growth trend despite volatility

The UKGC’s latest analysis covers 21 months through to February 2026. It uses estimated time spent on illegal gambling websites as a proxy for engagement.

The data shows volatile activity levels. There were no clear seasonal patterns or sustained upward trend. A spike recorded in autumn 2024 did not repeat the following year.

This supports the Commission’s earlier position from November 2025, when it said existing methods were insufficient to accurately estimate the size of the illegal market. Approaches based on time, channelisation and survey data were all deemed unreliable.

As a result, the regulator continues to treat its findings as directional rather than definitive.

VPN surge linked to Online Safety Act rollout

The Commission said there has been a significant increase in VPN usage following the implementation of the Online Safety Act in July 2025.

Data from  Ofcom and Similarweb shows VPN use rose sharply from that point. It has since stabilised at around 40% above pre-July levels.

Previously, the UKGC applied a 30% uplift to account for hidden traffic. However, recent trends suggest this may underestimate the true scale of VPN-masked activity.

To address this, the regulator has introduced multiple VPN usage scenarios into its modelling. This has widened confidence intervals and reduced certainty around its estimates from mid-2025 onwards.

Data gaps limit enforcement precision

The UKGC stressed that its figures are based on web traffic estimates, which carry inherent margins of error. These datasets also fail to capture activity through apps or direct connections.

As a result, the data is better suited to identifying trends than measuring absolute volumes.

Tim Livesley said the regulator is working with international counterparts and operators:

“We continue to work on improvements to our methodology and are seeking input from other international regulators and licensed operators to help verify and improve existing data sources and to identify additional datasets which can be used to improve understanding of the illegal market,” Tim Livesley, head of the UKGC’s Data Innovation Hub.

Accurate measurement remains critical for enforcement. It underpins actions such as payment blocking, domain takedowns and cooperation with financial institutions and advertising platforms.

The Commission added that it is strengthening its evidence base through the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and its Consumer Voice programme.

However, it acknowledged that VPNs are a growing challenge globally. Tools designed to protect user privacy are also making it harder for regulators and payment processors to detect illegal activity.

Regulator seeks clearer picture of black market

Despite the uncertainty, the  UKGC reiterated that tackling illegal gambling is a priority. Further updates on enforcement and disruption efforts are expected.

The regulator’s latest findings underline a wider issue facing jurisdictions worldwide. As anonymising technologies become more widespread, the gap between observable data and actual activity continues to grow.

For now, the UKGC’s position is clear: trends can be tracked, but the true scale of the illegal market remains difficult to measure.