Oddsmakers Predicted Trump to Defeat Harris On Election Day, Become 47th President

Republican Donald J. Trump will become the 47th president of the United States following a victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris at the polls.

Trump’s victory was foretold by betting odds from political markets, though it still came as a surprise to many in the American public. Trump became the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote, while Harris received nearly 14 million fewer votes than current President Joe Biden did in 2020.

The 45th president will return to the White House on Inauguration Day on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025.

The swinging pendulum

Hundreds of millions of dollars were wagered at political betting sites throughout the campaign trail.

Bookmakers had Trump and Harris in a near-dead heat to win the presidency at the start of October. By the morning of Election Day, BetMGM (Ontario) dropped Trump’s odds to -165, giving him a 62.3 percent implied chance to win the vote.

Odds swung in Trump’s favor as the night progressed and votes from more states were counted. A timeline of the betting odds for both candidates, per BetMGM, is listed below.

8:00 p.m. ET

• Trump -200
• Harris +170

9:00 p.m. ET

• Trump -300
• Harris +250

10:00 p.m. ET

• Trump -600
• Harris +450

11:00 p.m. ET

• Trump -2500
• Harris +1100

Most of the discourse during the build-up to Election Night centered on key battleground states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won five of the seven and leads in the other two, Arizona and Nevada, though votes have not been finalized. 

Several of those swing states voted Democrat in the last election and were part of the “Blue Wall” that was central to Harris’ path to victory.

Familiarity with the gambling industry

Trump has long been a supporter of legal sports betting. 

He attempted to bring regulated sports wagering to Atlantic City casinos in 1992 and ripped Garabed Haytaian, then the speaker of the New Jersey General Assembly, after Congress passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PAPSA) and restricted sports betting to Nevada casinos. 

It was during Trump’s first term in 2018 that PAPSA was repealed and states were allowed to legalize sports betting locally. Fittingly, New Jersey was one of the first states to legalize sports betting thereafter.

Trump also has plans for regular sports fans. While on SiriusXM’s Let’s Go! Podcast with Bill Belichick and Jim Gray just days before the election, he said that he would work to combat skyrocketing ticket prices for live games.

"Your middle class, which is your biggest sports fans, are being priced out,” Trump said. “It's not fair. The leagues are not taking care of their fans. They really aren't. They're making it impossible. 

He went on to say that he would “work on it” without providing specifics. 

Trump has not provided any recount comments on regulatory changes for casinos, though he’s likely to show support to gambling facilities if the time comes. He entered the Atlantic City casino scene during the 1980s and owned a variety of properties over the years.