Gorton and Denton odds shift after Labour blocks Burnham

The Green Party have moved into betting favouritism to win the Gorton and Denton by-election following Labour’s decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as its candidate.

Markets released by Star Sports show a sharp shift in sentiment, with the Greens now leading the field ahead of Reform UK and the Labour Party. The move comes amid growing internal tension within Labour and renewed scrutiny of the party’s national strategy.

Star Sports market reacts to Burnham decision

Star Sports made the Greens 6/4 favourites after they shortened dramatically from 6/1 in the 24 hours following confirmation that Burnham would not be permitted to stand. Reform have also shortened. This is now priced at 13/8. Labour have drifted from 4/9 to 15/8 and sit third in the market.

The by-election was triggered after former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne stepped down on health grounds. He’s left what has historically been a strong Labour seat suddenly competitive.

NEC ruling sparks backlash within Labour

Burnham confirmed he had sought approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee but was blocked. The party cited the cost of a mayoral election and the risk of a divisive campaign. Burnham later criticised the handling of the decision, saying media outlets were informed before he was.

The ruling has angered several Labour MPs and local figures. Critics argued that party members should have been allowed to choose their candidate. Burnham is widely viewed as a potential future leadership challenger.

Betting pressure extends beyond the by-election

William Kedjanyi, Political Betting Analyst at Star Sports, said Labour’s decision could “backfire”, opening the door for both the Greens and Reform to capitalise on voter frustration in the North West.

“Labour’s decision to block Andy Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election could well backfire, with a backlash from many MPs in the North West and supporters of Burnham giving the Greens and Reform a big opportunity." - William Kedjanyi - Political Betting Analyst ad Star Sports

Star Sports’ wider political markets also price Keir Starmer at 8/11 to be replaced as Labour leader this year. This shows how closely traders are linking the by-election fallout to Labour’s broader internal stability.

Market volatility reflects wider political uncertainty

The scale and speed of the odds movement has underlined how sensitive political betting markets have become to internal party decision-making. Traders reacted quickly once it became clear Burnham would not be allowed to stand, pricing in both potential voter backlash and the loss of a high-profile local figure.

By contrast, the shortened prices for the Greens and Reform suggest bettors expect turnout and protest voting to play a larger role than usual. With national polling already volatile and smaller parties gaining traction, the Gorton and Denton contest is now viewed as a genuine three-way race rather than a routine Labour hold. For bookmakers, it is one of the most fluid by-election markets seen this year.