Canadian Regulators Draw a Hard Line on Prediction Market Trading

Prediction market activity in the United States is making waves north of the border, and Canadian securities regulators are now pushing back.

The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) issued a joint statement on April 2. It reminded market participants that Canadian law prohibits advertising, offering, selling, or trading a binary option with a term to maturity of less than 30 days. Non-compliance, regulators warned, “may lead to enforcement action.”

Canada Permits Limited Event Contracts with Strict Conditions

The statement followed a CIRO bulletin permitting Wealthsimple to offer a limited set of event contracts. Interactive Brokers Canada had previously received similar authorization, and Questrade is reportedly seeking the same.

The rules, however, are narrow. As Geoff Zochodne wrote in Covers: “Keep it tied to economics, financial markets, and the environment. Also, no sports betting, no election wagering, and 30-day maturity terms at least.”

Lawyer Evan Thomas noted that if sports and election event contracts come to Canada, “the more likely path is through provincial gaming frameworks, not securities regulation.”

The CSA and CIRO confirmed they are reviewing current terms and conditions. Further regulatory action may follow.

Polymarket Defies Its Ontario Ban with Rogue Marketing at Rogers Center

The regulatory response also follows Polymarket’s bold move. The Globe and Mail reported that Polymarket-branded flyers were distributed outside Toronto’s Rogers Center before a Blue Jays game. The flyers promoted Polymarket as an official MLB partner and offered a $20 incentive using a Blue Jays promotional code.

In April 2025, Ontario securities regulators settled with Polymarket, which paid a $200,000 fine and accepted a two-year advertising ban and trading prohibition in Ontario. Zochodne called the flyer distribution “pretty brazen.”

An Ontario Securities Commission spokesperson told the Globe it takes “very seriously” any information it receives.

Prediction Market Integrity Is Fraying and Canada Is Paying Attention

Beyond regulatory boundaries, prediction markets face serious integrity questions. David Colborne wrote in the Nevada Independent that their effectiveness has weakened due to troubling incidents.

Members of the Israeli military, including an Air Force major, allegedly used classified information to place bets on Polymarket. The platform also saw unusual activity ahead of the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and in markets tied to events involving Iran.

Colborne warned: “Once participants learn how to manipulate and alter information to better support their bottom lines, all bets are off.”

Unlike the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has taken a largely hands-off approach, Canadian regulators appear determined to hold the line.