Concerts Boost Macau GGR as UBS Cuts 2026 Casino Forecasts

Macau's gaming industry is seeing a significant boost in March. This growth is largely driven by high-profile concerts at the city's integrated resorts. According to Citigroup, the gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first eight days of March reached approximately MOP5.65 billion ($702 million). This translates to a daily average of MOP706 million ($87.7 million).

Citigroup projects 14% year-on-year growth in GGR for March 2026, with total GGR expected at MOP22.5 billion ($2.8 billion). However, UBS has lowered its earnings forecasts for Macau's casinos due to rising operating costs.

Concerts Drive Early March GGR Growth in Macau

The early success of Macau's March GGR was largely driven by entertainment events. Concerts featuring popular artists have played a key role. Citigroup analysts noted performances by the Korean boy band TREASURE at the Venetian Arena. Other notable events included Chinese singer-songwriter Wang Sulong and the girl group aespa at Galaxy Arena.

These events likely contributed to the strong revenue figures. Despite a slight dip of about 4% from February's daily average, current figures show an 11% increase compared to the same period last year. To meet Citigroup's forecast, Macau's casinos must maintain an average daily GGR of about MOP733 million for the rest of March.

UBS Cuts 2026 EBITDA Forecasts for Macau Casinos

In contrast, UBS has revised its earnings outlook for Macau's gaming sector for 2026. The firm reduced EBITDA estimates by around 2% due to rising operational costs. A report published on March 9 highlighted increased fourth-quarter 2025 expenses.

These costs have affected profitability expectations. Despite this revision, UBS remains optimistic about the industry's growth potential. The firm projects a 5% increase in GGR for the year, with stronger growth expected in the first half.

Outlook for Macau Gaming Revenue in 2026

UBS analysts predict revenue growth could reach about 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. However, growth may taper to around 3% in the latter half. Overall profitability is expected to improve modestly. UBS projects a 6% increase in luck-adjusted EBITDA compared to flat performance in 2025.

The report emphasizes stable margins as operators shift focus from property upgrades to cost control. Continued demand is evident, with January and February combined GGR up about 14% year-on-year. This growth is expected to be driven by premium gaming segments, supported by enhanced marketing efforts and new hotel capacities across various integrated resorts.