California Tribes to Pursue Legal Sports Betting in 2028

After years of fighting attempts to legalize sports betting, the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) is dropping its resistance. 

At the recent Indian Gaming Association annual conference, the group announced plans to place sports betting on the 2028 ballot. This will include a signature-gathering effort, which the group will have plenty of time to complete.

While California lawmakers have supported sports betting, the lack of input on the framework could lead to resistance. However, that resistance will be limited, as the effort won’t require approval from the state legislature.

Prediction Markets Put Pressure on Tribes

While California tribes have discussed legalizing the industry in the past, their tune has changed over the last year. 

The primary reason for the shift is the rise of sports prediction markets, which are live in California. That means residents are already betting on sports and other topics, which may keep them from visiting the state’s many thriving retail casinos.

The state’s tribes have also filed lawsuits against Polymarket and Kalshi, seeking to force them out of business. With no crackdown imminent, postponing the legalization of sports betting will only make it harder to lure bettors away from prediction platforms.

Card Rooms May Have a New Ally

CNIGA has yet to release the framework they plan to propose, but strong opposition is almost guaranteed.

California’s tribes have been in an ugly fight with the state’s card room operators, who want in on sports betting. They have pushed lawmakers to legalize the industry, but tribes have accused them of dishonest dealings in doing so. That led to strong opposition, killing each proposal before it came close to becoming law. 

With the tribes taking on the prediction industry, it could provide those card room operators with a powerful and wealthy new ally. This could shift the battle in their favor and end any hopes for a tribal-centric sports betting market. 

Timing Brings Questions

There are plenty of reasons for CNIGA to take its time in pushing a ballot initiative for sports betting. However, there is reason to wonder about the timing of the effort.

November 2028 will feature a presidential election, meaning the US could see a new leader enter the White House. That would erase the prediction industry's top ally and likely lead to a major clampdown on the largely unregulated industry. Based on the current polling numbers, it seems that change is becoming increasingly likely.

It’s not surprising that the tribes would wait for a change in Washington, D.C. to take action, but why not start this process earlier? We knew the legal fights would take time, allowing prediction operators to push hard to add customers in California. 

The fear is that tribes, along with state lawmakers, know they are fighting a losing battle. The US Supreme Court has largely backed the White House, dampening hopes for legal challenges against the industry. With Republicans still controlling Congress and the President holding veto power, the bills aimed at reining in the industry are unlikely to become law.