At this point in the game, we have to make a decision based not only on
the three cards that we have been dealt, but also on the fourth card,
the first of the dealer's exposed cards. Since at this stage we have
made our first decision, and now know 80% of the hand, our options, and
possibilities, become even more limited.
Once again, we are faced with the question, should we let our money
ride or not? That all depends on what you were dealt from the start, or
what has developed with the online casino dealer's exposed card.
Just as we did during the third card strategy, we make our choice based
on the existing possibilities of the hand.
We
will play only those hands where we have a positive expectation for
winning, and remove the bets from the second circle for those hands
where the expectation is negative. In some cases, where we have a
guaranteed win (a pair of 10s or better) the decision is already made.
We keep the second bet up.
There will also be times when we
have hands that ,while not guaranteed, still have sufficient strength
and potential to warrant letting the second bet stay. Four cards to a
royal flush is a good example of this. In that instance you have
numerous possibilities, royal flush, straight flush (depending on the
needed card), flush, straight or even a high pair. In fact, if the
straight flush is open-ended, the odds for drawing it is about 22-1.
That's a big jump from almost 650,000-1, the odds for drawing a royal
flush.
Most of the time, however, this will not be the case and
the best course of action will be to remove the second bet, and add it
back into our online casino bankroll.
Now let's look at the rules for playable hands. Below
illustrates the instances when you should let the second bet ride.
These are the only hands where it is to your benefit to keep as much
money in action as you can.
Rules for playable hands:
Four of a kind: This is an easy one for a
decision. Since this hand is a guaranteed winner, paying out at 50-1,
there is no question that for this hand you should let your bets ride.
Three of a kind: Not only is this an excellent hand to be
sitting with because you are guaranteed a payout of 3-1 for each of
your bets, it has room to become an even better hand, such as four
of a kind, or a full house. Let the second bet ride.
Two pair: This hand is also an instant winner, paying out at
2-1, and it too can be improved upon to a full house. Do not remove
the second bet.
Pair of 10s or higher: This is one of the more common hands
that you will see, occurring about 20% of the time. It is a classic
no-brainer that can again be improved on. Let the bet ride.
Four cards to a royal flush: While this bet may not be a
guaranteed winner, there are so many possibilities that it is to your
advantage to let the second bet ride. You have a hand where you have a
possible royal flush, straight flush, flush, straight or high pair,
most of which will pay extended amounts.
Four cards to a straight flush: Whilst this hand may not have
the same extended possibilities as the four to a royal flush, it still
can yield some excellent results. You have a possible straight flush,
flush, straight, and high pair if you have any high cards.
Four to a flush: Since you've already beaten the 23-1 odds on
filling a flush with three cards, and reduced the odds to about 4½ -1
for a hand that will pay 8-1, you've got the makings of a good
statistical edge. This hand may also be assisted with any high cards
that could result in a winning pair, though this is not necessary. The
hand should always be played.
Four cards to an open ended straight: This hand also has
possibilities and should be played, though without any high cards in
the hand there will be no winning pairs possible, and it will
eventually balance out in the long run. The odds for drawing the fifth
cards to an open-ended straight are 5-1, the exact odds that this hand
pays out. Neither you, nor the casino has the edge for this hand.
Four cards to a high straight: This is the most marginal of all
of the hands that we will play. The odds for drawing to an inside
straight are 11-1 against you, but that value is buffered by the sheer
amount of high cards that comprise your hand, which could yield a
winning pair. This bet should ride.
Avoiding non-playable hands:
At times in Let it Ride, we are confronted by hands that seem to show
promise, but in fact are best discarded, as they hold either too
limited a potential, or offer payouts lower than the odds for making
the hand. These hands are:
Inside or one-way straight. These hands just do not have the
mathematical likelihood to be considered a good hand. A straight pays
off at 5-1 in this game, and the chances of drawing to an inside
straight are 11-1. The casino odds do not justify letting this bet
ride, even if there is a high card involved.
